Articles
Fiber Fever Is Indeed Upon Us!
The current fiber industry landscape bears a striking resemblance to the cable industry of the 1990s and the wireless sector of the early 2000s. To bury lead: what happened then – is what I think will happen now. The cable and wireless “orphans” got adopted and at the...
(Re)-building a “castle” sometimes requires less shovels….
Tower stocks have been up ~ 15% (1) year-to-date and have significantly outperformed data centers of late. The reasons for this are not overly surprising: lower interest rates, market rotation toward ‘safer’ investment models, the overhang around...
Living on the “Edge” Often Makes for a More Fulsome View
When American Tower (AMT) purchased Coresite in 2021, it represented a sea change for the industry as it was the first time a data center and tower company locked arms. Looking back, it seems this line was cast with great purpose and strategic thought. From an...
The “Power-full” Data Center Conversation Continues to Evolve
The phrase “long pole in the tent” is often used when discussing the relationship between power and data centers. In our conversations with both the platforms behind and management teams of data centers we are seeing a strong urgency to hire dedicated power...
The Moat Around the Data Center Business Is Only Getting Thicker – And “Capital” (and access to it….) are the new protective sharks in the water
Reading a recent LinkedIn post by the founder of the data center Hawk group I found perfectly summarized what we are seeing in data centers in 13 short words / acronyms. It read as follows: Millions --> Billions. Megawatts --> Gigawatts. CPUs --> GPUs....
Will the Arrows Come Flying Once Again?
The great cable cowboy, John Malone, once famously said: “We lost no major ground by waiting to invest. Unfortunately, pioneers in cable technology often have arrows in their back.” He made this comment during his tenure as the CEO of the cable company TCI. In...
The Sun Is Continuing to Shine Through the “Clouds” – No Immediate Rain in the Forecast
A recent article in Business Insider indicated Amazon is planning to cut its office space footprint by ~ 10 percent over the next three to five years. The end results of these moves are expected to save the company $1.3B / year in operating expenses. To put this...
The Definition of “Digital Infrastructure” Continues to Stretch Toward New Exciting Territories
The definition of Digital Infrastructure continues to stretch. This was my immediate thought when I saw the news earlier this month that Boldyn Networks would be buying Apogee Telecom. Apogee was not a name with which I was overly familiar but when I read about...
Will 2024 Represent the Year When the Dominoes Game Really Begins?
With all the earnings news and analyst days in the telecom space the past few weeks, one important talking point that seemed to be missed by almost every analyst report I read, but may be an important harbinger of things to come, came from AT&T’s CEO John Stankey...
Top 10 Themes To Watch in the Communications Services & Digital Infrastructure Space in 2024
Happy New Year to all the Fritzsche Forum readers. As the calendar turns, we always take our best guess as to the key trends to watch. Here is our best guess for what we believe will be a wild and crazy 2024… 1. CABLE WIRELESS AND TELECOM FWA TUG OF WAR WILL CONTINUE...
Team Magenta = An Army With A Multi-Pronged Formation
Now that the large cap telecom players have all reported Q3’23 earnings, it is a good time for reflection to review the lessons learned and trends which abound in the space. When I was an analyst I followed T-Mobile. While everyone was focused on the unique...
FWA: Is this boat about to hit an iceberg or transform into a luxury cruise ship?
The words “we need a bigger boat” have been used in some recent Wall Street write ups when describing the data center space. But listening to the announcements coming out of Mobile World Congress (MWC) last month in Las Vegas from the Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)...
Our Four Legged Friends & Digital Infrastructure – A Strange But True Analogy
I remember when I was a young analyst and the great John Stanton (wireless pioneer who was CEO of two public companies - Western Wireless and VoiceStream - at the same time) would speak at conferences. He had a great way of using analogies which would...
The FTTH Cliff May Not Be Upon Us
Recently, I was sitting in a meeting with the head of a large infrastructure fund. During the course of our discussion I was pitching ideas in different silos of the digital infrastructure space. It was interesting because this particular client was one of...
Where Do I Begin?
While I no longer sit in the analyst chair, sometimes I get reach outs from contacts seeking my opinion about themes impacting the industry. One such inbound came this past week when someone asked my thoughts on the recent Fortune article (Why AT&T and Verizon’s...
Will The Wireless Green Shoots Become Flowers or Weeds?
Ask any of the telecos’ management teams how the week of July 10th was and they may all growl at you. If anyone has followed the news flow this week related to telecom, they will know that this was a week many telecos will want to forget. It all began with the July...
Lumen: The Union Pacific of Fiber
When I was an analyst one of my most memorable trips was to Monroe, LA. Why? Well, it was perhaps the ONLY domestic trip I ever took that did NOT offer a direct flight from O’Hare. Still to this day 20 years later, that in and of itself makes this...
If you can’t beat them – join them
That was my first thought when we saw the (very surprising) news at ConnectX around the Vertical Bridge (VB) and Verizon (VZ) joint press release on May 9th. While exact financial details were not disclosed, the two companies are creating an LLC and share the...
ZAYO: “Chapter Three” Centers Around the Focused and Determined Hiker
Earlier this year at the MetroConnect conference in Fort Lauderdale, there seemed to be some concerns about Zayo. These worries centered around many things. Integration of 40+ companies was harder and longer than hoped: despite Zayo’s size and scale, Zayo was still...
Follow the “Big Red” Breadcrumbs….
At recent conferences and industry chit chats, there has been a lot of talk about fiber players pulling back. The laundry list of reasons is not overly surprising or really that unique. They include things like supply chain delays, labor shortages, inflation, etc....
Towers: Welcoming More Guests to the Table
Late last month, American Tower (AMT) and Qualcomm announced a collaboration to “advance network architecture and accelerate near-edge applications.” I have been on record as saying that Edge is (finally) more than a whiteboard concept. This collaboration...
Remember the Lesson of the last “G” Cycle: Patience Is Indeed a Virtue
The past few days, I used the weekend to clean out my office. This is always such a ‘fun’ (and funny!) exercise as I typically find myself going down the rabbit hole of memories after finding a note from my kids or a picture from when they were young. ...
Top 10 Themes For 2023…..(Hint: It Will NOT Be Dull)
As the calendar turns to 2023, it is prediction time! So, without further ado, here are our Top 10: 1. Spotlight on IoT – Like Edge was in 2022, 2023 will be the year when IoT becomes more than a ‘whiteboard concept.’ Europe has set the precedent. ...
AT&T: The “Inside Out” Dilemma
This past week we heard from the “big guys” (AT&T, Verizon, Comcast, Charter) on Q4 2022 earnings. Many big themes came out but fiber was the clear topic of interest for AT&T investors. The quick elevator summary was AT&T is slowing the roll out a bit in...
Who Knew the 1998 Movie The Truman Show May Offer Some Important 5G Learnings?
This past weekend, I was in Orlando at a soccer tournament with my 15 year old daughter. Given we had some time to kill before our flight, I decided to take her on a field trip of sorts and we drove to Lake Nona, one of the first master planned communities. I...
Big Red’s Strategy With Private Networks Becoming More Clear
A few weeks ago I was lucky to be a part of the Georgetown's Center for Business Inaugural Spectrum Summit. The session which I hosted was all about private networks. Private networks, like “Edge”, have been talked about much but there has been very little...
Why is AT&T Not Bear Hugging FWA Like Its Peers?
Coming off Q3 2022 earnings season, it was interesting to note the different talking points around Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) offerings. Two carriers (T-Mobile and Verizon) are quite bullish while AT&T continues to take a more conservative stance. The...
Beware of Ignoring the “Powers” that Be…
When I was an analyst, I remember at one of our 5G conferences in 2017 when we turned it over to the audience for questions, there was a noticeable turn from the “typical” questions. Why do I remember this? It was because a wise investor was connecting dots...
The Road To Mesa Could be An Interesting One!
A recent interview on Fox Business News with John Stankey (CEO of AT&T) and Wendall Weeks (CEO of Corning) offered some very interesting tidbits which (quite surprisingly) did not seem to get the attention it may have deserved from the Street. I say this because...
Wireless Does Need Wires…But If Given the Choice Between the Two, Which Comes Out On Top?
People who have read my write-ups have often seen me borrow one of my favorite quotes from Ray LaChance – CEO of ZenFi – “wireless needs wires.” It is true. But maybe “wires” take precedence over “wireless” in some cases? Evidence of this may be the 8/1...
The Beat of History’s ‘Rhyming Rhythm’ May Be Getting Louder
There has been a lot of talk about AT&T's and Verizon’s Q2 earnings. While there have been a slew of earnings since then, I think it is worth peeling back the onion a bit here and framing what we heard in the context of past cyclical patterns. On its call,...
Is the Light at the End of the Tunnel Finally Being Seen for Small Cells?
There has been much negativity directed toward small cells. When Crown Castle adjusted their pipeline downward last year, this negativity seemed to feed on itself. Many wrote this sector off completely. I never really understood this...
Cable – The Winds Are Also Shifting on Enterprise Side of the House
There has been so much talk about the fact that Cable is under pressure in its consumer broadband business as the telecom players have (finally) woken up to the need for more fiber. But perhaps investors are not looking at another lurking issue in cable’s...
Zayo: Second Act Has Begun……
“Strange Bedfellows” was the phrase that popped into my head when I read Zayo’sMay 10th press release. While I was not surprised to see Zayo's news about the network expansion and 400G upgrade (under DigitalBridge and EQT, Zayo will never be accused of...
Expect a lot more PINS on that bulletin board……
In my past write ups, we have tackled the edge theme with my token tagline being: “Edge is more than just a white board concept.” I was pleased to see that there was tangible ‘meat on the bone’ evidence of this concept this past week. Specifically, EdgePresence,...
The Bundling Theme so many have hoped for seems to be finally coming to fruition
A walk with my dog recently showed many of the pictured lawn signs in my neighborhood. Living less than 15 miles from Chicago (in a dense neighborhood) one has to wonder what took so long for Big Blue to see the need?. There has been much “talk-about” that cable is...