The current fiber industry landscape bears a striking resemblance to the cable industry of the 1990s and the wireless sector of the early 2000s. To bury lead: what happened then – is what I think will happen now. The cable and wireless “orphans” got adopted and at the end of the day there were only a few “families” left.  Today’s fiber market is following the same playbook – and the endgame is becoming increasingly clear.

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As we all know, history doesn’t repeat itself – but it often rhymes!  

To that end,  quick review of what happened in both cable and wireless industries of old:

Cable’s Great Merger Wave (1990s) – The cable industry’s transformation offers a perfect blueprint. Regional operators like TCI, Jones Intercable, E.W. Scripps, Maclean Hunter Cable, ATC, and Warner Cable were systematically absorbed into the mega-platforms we know today. The recent Charter-Cox strategic announcement signals this consolidation playbook remains alive and well, with “cable brothers locking arms” to maintain their market position.

Wireless Follows Suit (Early 2000s) – In wireless, many public stocks I used to follow as an analyst, Alltel, Rural Cellular, Dobson Cellular, Vanguard and (always a fan favorite) Western Wireless are now part of the three national wireless players.   What began as a diverse ecosystem of regional players condensed into an oligopoly through relentless M&A activity.

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The fiber market is now experiencing its own consolidation moment, with deal velocity reaching unprecedented levels. The past twelve months have delivered a barrage of transformative transactions:

Major Carrier Moves:

• AT&T’s acquisition of Lumen’s consumer fiber assets
• Verizon-Frontier merger
• T-Mobile and KKR’s Metronet acquisition

Mid-Market Consolidation:

• Bluebird-Everstream
• Uniti-Windstream combination
• Wyyerd Fiber’s acquisition of Arizona fiber assets from Ting and Conterra
• Ripple Fiber’s merger with HyperFiber
• FiberNow’s acquisition of WaveTechs

Infrastructure Plays:

• Mereo Network’s acquisition of Dish Fiber
• Visionary Broadband’s purchase of MTWeb
• FiberLight’s acquisition of Metro Fiber Networks
• Zayo and EQT’s joint acquisition of Crown Castle’s fiber and small cell businesses

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This frenzy represents a classic “land grab” scenario, with players desperately pursuing both organic growth and strategic acquisitions to expand their geographic footprint before prime markets become unavailable.

For the major wireless carriers—AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon—fiber consolidation serves a critical strategic purpose: enabling true fixed-mobile convergence. Bundled services drive higher Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) while significantly reducing customer churn. A stickier customer paying more per month is nothing but a good thing!

The scale of this consolidation is noteworthy. Rough numbers would suggest that (pro-forma for the Lumen and Frontier transactions), AT&T and Verizon will control over 75% of the entire fiber market. This level of market concentration fundamentally alters competitive dynamics and raises important strategic questions for remaining player

T-Mobile faces a particularly complex strategic challenge. While the company has been less vocal about convergence than its peers, the rapid fiber market consolidation and the cable industry’s increasing cooperation present a potential strategic threat. As cable “brothers” choose to bear hug one another (i.e. Cox / Charter) rather than embrace their wireless “cousins,” T-Mobile may find itself increasingly isolated.

If the convergence trend does gain its sea legs, T-Mo must decide whether to accelerate its own fiber strategy through additional acquisitions or greenfield build or risk being left behind. With prime fiber assets disappearing rapidly and market concentration increasing, the window for strategic action is narrowing.

History suggests this consolidation wave will continue until only a handful of dominant players remain. Just like the cable and wireless industries of yesteryear, the fiber industry appears destined for the same outcome. The question is not whether further consolidation will occur, but rather which companies will emerge as the surviving “families” and which will become the “orphans” awaiting adoption.

As the musical chairs quickly disappear, it will be those companies that secure their seats now will likely dominate the fiber landscape for many years to come.